Now the NHC gives the broad area of low pressure about a medium chance-about 30% - of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, and a 40% chance of development within the next 5 days.
As of Monday morning at 8 a.m., one Skywarn weather spotter in western Palm Coast already had reported 2.6 inches of rain, said Bob Pickering, an emergency services technician with Flagler County Emergency Management. Some increased organization is possible over the next two days before the low-pressure system crosses the Gulf coast ending tropical development chances.
- On Monday, a large area of showers and storms associated with a broad area of low pressure extended from Cuba up through Central Florida. "Some heavier pockets of rain could result in some flash flooding, but overall this rain won't be too heavy for too long". Note that some of the rainfall shown in the Mid-Atlantic is the result of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon, rather than the tropical disturbance slated to come through between Wednesday and Friday. If this system develops, it would be Tropical Storm Alberto.
There is a weak disturbance in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
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The rain is welcome news for some, as much of the state has been in a moderate to severe drought this spring.
"With the main threat from this system being flash flooding caused by heavy rainfall, the main thing people can do is promise themselves they're not going to drive their auto through a water-covered roadway", Knabb continued.
Aside from January and the first few days in February, there hasn't been any significant rainfall (rainfall averaging at or above 0.5 cm) at all this year for the Sunshine State. One to 3 inches of rain are predicted for other parts of the Southeast, with the storm moving northward this week. "Most likely pushing some waves and some energy this way that we'll be looking at some rip current risk along the beach, and maybe some higher surf".