Iran's crude exports fell further in the first week of October, according to tanker data and an industry source, reported Reuters, as buyers sought alternatives ahead of USA sanctions on Iran that take effect on November 4.
US crude futures CLc1 were trading down over 1 percent at $74.14 per barrel Wednesday morning, reflecting the declining importance of Gulf of Mexico output that has resulted from the growth of production from the nation's onshore shale fields. On Oct. 3, it hit a four-year high of $86.74 U.S. OPEC has been under the hit list from the US for declining the increased outcome to answer rising oil prices.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly demanded the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pump more to temper prices.
OPEC in its monthly report, said world oil demand would increase by 1.36 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, marking a decline of 50,000 bpd from its previous estimate.
On the oil front, USA crude inventories rose by 6 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, more than double analysts' expectations of a 2.6 million-barrel increase.
In its latest Short-Term-Energy-Outlook (STEO), EIA also estimated that USA crude oil production averaged 11.1 million barrels per day in September, up slightly from August levels.
I don't like Fed raising interest rates so quickly, says Trump
High interest rates can create a crash because it slows down borrowing and the movement of money, and it slows down investment. Trump has departed from that practice and has said he would not shy from future criticism should the Fed keep lifting rates.
Should OPEC keep pumping at September's rate, the report points to an excess supply of nearly 1 million bpd in 2019 - although this is before any sizeable reduction takes place in Iranian output.
India, a major buyer, has ordered Iranian oil for November, although New Delhi does not yet know whether it will receive such a waiver.
Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to October 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. Gasoline futures dropped as much as 2 percent to $1.9808 a gallon, sliding for a third day.
The chief executive of Gunvor, Torbjorn Tornqvist, said he saw lower prices next year at $70-$75, citing a slowdown in demand growth and a well-supplied market.
"Iranian barrels are declining fast, and Saudi Arabia's promise to balance will face a reality check in a month's time", JP Morgan analysts said in a note. "As a result, Indian refiners will increase dependence on the remaining Middle Eastern crude oil suppliers (mainly Saudi Arabia and Iraq), aside from Iran", Moody's has said recently.
According to Reuters, on 10 October, Hurricane Michael cut almost one-third of natural gas production and 42% of crude oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico.